USD-INR is holding a short term range of 49.75-50.75 with 21 DMA of 49.7 acting as a strong support. In short term, expectations of a growth oriented budget, strong stock market and higher demand for dollars ahead of the financial year end will make it difficult for the USD-INR to find any specific direction. Rupee forecast is hard to make as there is a failure to break through the key levels of 49-48.75. With EUR-USD approaching the psychological level of 1.3 and Greece default looming on the Euro zone, it will be interesting to see how Dollar Index turns out. Since the last update, Dollar Index has already crossed the key resistance of 79.9 and heading towards 80.9.
Keeping in mind the present EUR-USD & Dollar Index levels and the general market conditions discussed above, one can buy March 2012 contract of USD-INR at around 49.9-50 for an immediate target of 50.3-50.75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of high of December 2011 to low of February 2012) in the short term with a strict stop loss of 49.7. The USD-INR technical chart pattern also shows % William’s range is above -50 and taking support at the rising trend line.
Also, one can sell the May, 2012 contract at around 51.2-51.5. In the short term, technically the USD-INR has a range of 49.5-50.5.
Now it’s your turn…..
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